According to the German Association for Information Management, Telecommunications and New Media (BITKOM), for the first time in more than ten years the German and European markets for consumer electronics are predicted to shrink in volume in 2009. For Germany BITKOM experts forecast a drop in turnover by 7% to 12.5 billion Euros and for the whole of Europe a decrease by 9% to 62 billion Euros. These predictions are based on current data made available by the EITO and GfK market research companies.
Among major EU member states the drop in turnover is predicted to be biggest in Spain, according to the EITO forecast, where sales are said to plummet by 16% to 4.8 billion Euros this year. For Italy experts predict a decrease by 13 % to 5.8 billion Euros, for France by 12 % to 8.9 billion Euros and for Great Britain by 4% to 12.4 billion.
According to BITKOM, the reason for the above scenario is, however, not to be found in the economic crisis and the following reduced spending. An explanation is rather the fact that in Germany the digitalization of consumer electronics had resulted in very strong, often two-digit growth rates, in recent years. This process has now come to an end. As a consequence, there is no turnover generated by consumers replacing their analogous devices by digital ones any more. Furthermore, there are no special effects this year such as major sports events like the European Football Cup or Olympic Games which could serve as stimuli. At the same time, prices for many products are falling as well.
The German overall market for consumer electronics is influenced to a large extent by the development with regard to flat screen TVs. LCD devices and plasma TVs account for 57% of the overall market for consumer electronics. In Germany there will by about 7.1 million flat screen TVs sold this year which would be a new record. The number of units sold is expected to increase by 7.4 % on the previous year. However, according to the EITO forecast, turnover is expected to fall by 2 % to 5.3 billion Euros given that prices will fall to an even larger extend. Thus, the average price of a flat screen TV is expected to fall by 10% to 750 Euros.
Also shrinking is the sales volume of digital cameras, MP3 players or navigation systems. On the other hand, sales of blu-ray-players, digital set-top-boxes and digital home cinema devices are said to grow. In 2009 95% of turnover generated in the market for consumer electronics will be accounted for by digital devices and just 5% by analogous ones. 