The Association of German Chamber of Commerce and Industry (DIHK) predicts that even though the growth of German imports and exports will somewhat slow down in 2008 and 2009, Germany will nevertheless kepp its leading global position. Experts by the DIHK assume that German exports may surpass the magic barrier of 1 trillion Euros, German exports to France break the 100 billion barrier and the German trade balance surplus amount to more than 200 billion Euros for the first time ever. These optimistic predictions are based on the “German foreign trade in 2008/2009” survey.
In the course of this survey an index calculated by experts from all German foreign chambers of commerce and trade in more than 80 countries was compiled.
Even though German foreign trade will set new records in 2008 and 2009 the propects were not as good any more as in recent year, says DIHK chairman Axel Nitschke. “The DIHK expects the growth rate for imports to fall to 6.5% in the year 2009. For exports we still forecast a growth of 6%.” For comparison: for 2008 growth rates for imports and exports are forecast to amount to 7.5% and 7.0% respectively.
Mr Nitschke said that this development reflected a slight cooldown of the global economy. Nevertheless, there is no reason to speak of a sharp decline in the world economy given that there is also still growth in emerging countries. The growth of German exports was somewhat less dynamic, but still on a high level.
Mr. Nitschke is convinced that Germany will remain the world´s leading exporting countriy in the year 2008. Whether this title will be conquered by China in 2009 was also a question of exchange rates. “If the exchange rate of the US-dollar against the Euro remains above 1.50, then Germany will stay the world´s leading exporting country in 2009 as well.”
All findings of the above-mentioned survey are available for download. 